Downstream Implications of AWS-3 Auction

By Armand Musey | December 24, 2014

While there has been extensive discussion about the AWS-3 auctions, there has been less discussion about the long-term industry impacts of the auctions: 1)    Upcoming 600 MHz Auction Prices – Higher transaction prices from the AWS-3 auction could imply higher prices for the 600 MHz auction. However: With the telecom industry spending ~$45B on the…

New Draft Paper on Spectrum Demand Forecast Error

By Armand Musey | August 18, 2014

Aalok Mehta (PhD candidate at USC ) and I just finished a draft of a paper we are scheduled to present at the Telecom Policy Research Conference (TPRC) next month. The paper, “Overestimating Wireless Demand: Policy and Investment Implications of Upward Bias in Mobile Data Forecasts,” is about forecast error in demand estimates for spectrum.…

U-verse is the Regulatory Key to the Proposed AT&T/DIRECTV Merger

By Armand Musey | June 19, 2014

AT&T ‘s proposed $48 billion acquisition of DIRECTV is based on two simple business facts – 1) AT&T has broadband but needs a stronger video product to compete with cable; and 2) DIRERCTV needs a voice and broadband product to compete with cable. By combining services the can save money on customer service, back office…

FCC Auctions May Disappoint – Supply of Money Less than Supply of Spectrum

By Armand Musey | April 22, 2014

There’s a legitimate question as to whether the wireless industry has enough money to pay historical prices for spectrum the FCC intends to auction over the next 18 months. The FCC intends to auction approximately 150 MHz of spectrum between the AWS-3 and the Broadcast Incentive auction (assuming 65 MHz at AWS-3 and 85 MHz…

The Road to Approval for a Sprint/T-Mobile Merger May Run Through DISH Network

By Armand Musey | March 17, 2014

It’s no secret that Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS) have been exploring a potential merger and that there are significant concerns over whether such a merger would be approved. Sprint and T-Mobile argue that the US wireless market is a near-duopoly dominated by ATT (T) and Verizon (VZ) with a combined market share of approximately…

Intelsat’s Yearend Results Highlight Dependence on Next Generation Epic Satellites

By Armand Musey | February 24, 2014

DISCLAIMER: The analysis below is for information purposes only. We believe, but cannot guarantee that the information contained in it is accurate. Moreover, it should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security of any kind. Please consult a qualified advisor before making significant investment or business decisions. See our Terms of…

Five Reasons the Comcast/Time Warner Cable Anti Trust Concerns are Overbown

By Armand Musey | February 17, 2014

There has been a lot of market speculation that the Comcast’s proposed acquisition of Time Warner Cable might be blocked on anti-trust concerns. We believe these concerns are overblown. 1) The Cable Operations Don’t Compete in the Same Markets, so Industry Concentration Doesn’t Change. The combined company would serve over 30 million homes, which initially…

Wireless Demand Projections – Elasticity of the Top-1% Percent Users

By Armand Musey | January 26, 2014

Wireless network traffic growth projections have been significantly cut since the FCC’s 2010 National Broadband Plan. The National Broadband Plan projected wireless network demand in 2010 to be 468 billion MB, vs the 398 billion MB actually carried in 2010 according to the CTIA. In 2011, the spread got wider, 1090 billion MB projected vs…

“The Spectrum Handbook” 2013 Released

By Armand Musey | November 26, 2013

Summit Ridge Group,LLC is please to announce the publication of The Spectrum Handbook 2013. This 182 page book is available in hardcopy and e-book version through major on-line resellers. Executive Summary This Handbook has three objectives: 1) to serve as a primer for explaining the complex issues around the use of electromagnetic spectrum; 2) to…

New White Paper: Right-sizing Spectrum Auction Licenses: The Case for Smaller Geographic License Areas in the TV Broadcast Incentive Auction

By Armand Musey | November 21, 2013

Summit Ridge Group, LCC  just completed a white paper covering a significant issue related to the upcoming FCC Broadcast Incentive Auction. The paper, Right-sizing Spectrum Auction Licenses: The Case for Smaller Geographic License Areas in the TV Broadcast Incentive Auction was sponsored by the Competitive Carriers Association.  The Executive Summary is below. Executive Summary The wireless…